Comparison of predicted and actual states in tunnels: lessons to be learned from the Gerede Water Transmission Tunnel, Turkey

The Gerede Tunnel is a large inter-basin project in Turkey. As with many long tunnels, some of the predictions in the project report and the tender contract have not been realized. Completion of the tunnel has been delayed for more than twice the time given in the tender contract. Unexpectedly complex geological-tectonic-hydrogeological conditions and the selection of tunnel-boring machines (TBMs) are the main reasons for this long delay. There were some discrepancies between the predicted and actual geology. The groundwater pressure encountered was much higher than expected. Plastic clays in the limestone and breccia and loose agglomerates with a high water pressure in the faults decreased the advance rate and led to several long stoppages. One of the three double-shield TBMs became stuck in the tunnel and could not be recovered. The last quarter of the tunnel was excavated more slowly, but without severe problems, by a modified earth pressure balance shield TBM. As a result, the TBM type, drive direction, length, route, cost and completion date of the Gerede Tunnel have all changed.