Reliability analysis approach for railway embankment slopes using response surface method based Monte Carlo simulation

The railway embankment slope is a complex open system including uncertainty of soil parameters. Considering the influencing factors with randomness, ambiguity and uncertainty, the reliability analysis of slope stability is often accompanied by an implicit state equation, subtle changes of the input variables may result in drastic changes to the slope stability. In this work, a coupled Markov chain model is used to describe the staggering occurrence of different geotechnical types. To further describe the inherent variability of soil parameters, a response surface method (RMS) based Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) is conducted to perform the reliability analysis. One case study is carried out using borehole data collected from Masao District in Yunnan, China. The results indicate the proposed RMS-based MCS approach could be utilized as a practical and efficient tool for the slope reliability analysis to address the system reliability analysis for complex slopes.