The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data

被引：129

作者：

Bryson, Steve ^{[1
]}

Kunimoto, Michelle ^{[2
]}

Kopparapu, Ravi K. ^{[3
]}

Coughlin, Jeffrey L. ^{[1
,4
]}

Borucki, William J. ^{[1
]}

Koch, David ^{[1
]}

Aguirre, Victor Silva ^{[5
]}

Allen, Christopher ^{[6
]}

Barentsen, Geert ^{[7
]}

Batalha, Natalie M. ^{[8
]}

Berger, Travis ^{[9
]}

Boss, Alan ^{[10
]}

Buchhave, Lars A. ^{[11
]}

Burke, Christopher J. ^{[12
,13
]}

Caldwell, Douglas A. ^{[1
,4
]}

Campbell, Jennifer R. ^{[1
]}

Catanzarite, Joseph ^{[14
]}

Chandrasekaran, Hema ^{[15
]}

Chaplin, William J. ^{[5
,16
]}

Christiansen, Jessie L. ^{[17
]}

Christensen-Dalsgaard, Jorgen ^{[5
]}

Ciardi, David R. ^{[17
]}

Clarke, Bruce D. ^{[1
,4
]}

Cochran, William D. ^{[18
,19
]}

Dotson, Jessie L. ^{[1
]}

Doyle, Laurance R. ^{[4
]}

Duarte, Eduardo Seperuelo ^{[1
,20
]}

Dunham, Edward W. ^{[21
]}

Dupree, Andrea K. ^{[22
]}

Endl, Michael ^{[18
,19
]}

Fanson, James L. ^{[23
]}

Ford, Eric B. ^{[24
,25
,26
,27
]}

Fujieh, Maura ^{[1
]}

Gautier III, Thomas N. ^{[23
]}

Geary, John C. ^{[28
]}

Gilliland, Ronald L. ^{[29
]}

Girouard, Forrest R. ^{[1
,30
]}

Gould, Alan ^{[31
]}

Haas, Michael R. ^{[1
]}

Henze, Christopher E. ^{[1
]}

Holman, Matthew J. ^{[22
]}

Howard, Andrew W. ^{[32
]}

Howell, Steve B. ^{[1
]}

Huber, Daniel ^{[9
]}

Hunter, Roger C. ^{[1
]}

Jenkins, Jon M. ^{[1
]}

Kjeldsen, Hans ^{[5
]}

Kolodziejczak, Jeffery ^{[33
]}

Larson, Kipp ^{[34
]}

Latham, David W. ^{[22
]}

机构：

[1] NASA, Ames Res Ctr, Moffett Field, CA 94035 USA

[2] Univ British Columbia, Dept Phys & Astron, 6224 Agr Rd, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z1, Canada

[3] NASA, Goddard Space Flight Ctr, Greenbelt, MD USA

[4] SETI Inst, 189 Bernardo Ave,Suite 200, Mountain View, CA 94043 USA

[5] Aarhus Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, Stellar Astrophys Ctr SAC, Ny Munkegade 120, DK-8000 Aarhus C, Denmark

[6] NASA, Ames Res Ctr, Orbital Sci Corp, Moffett Field, CA 94035 USA

[7] Bay Area Environm Res Inst, 625 2nd St,Suite 209, Petaluma, CA 94952 USA

[8] Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA

[9] Univ Hawaii, Inst Astron, 2680 Woodlawn Dr, Honolulu, HI 96822 USA

[10] Carnegie Inst Sci, Earth & Planets Lab, Washington, DC 20005 USA

[11] Tech Univ Denmark, DTU Space, Natl Space Inst, Elektrovej 328, DK-2800 Lyngby, Denmark

[12] MIT, Dept Phys, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

[13] MIT, Kavli Inst Astrophys & Space Res, 77 Massachusetts Ave, Cambridge, MA 02139 USA

[14] Cross Entropy Consulting, Long Beach, CA USA

[15] Lawrence Livermore Natl Lab, Computat Engn Div, L-261, Livermore, CA 94550 USA

[16] Univ Birmingham, Sch Phys & Astron, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England

[17] NASA, Exoplanet Sci Inst, CALTECH, IPAC, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA

[18] Univ Texas Austin, McDonald Observ, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[19] Univ Texas Austin, Ctr Planetary Syst Habitabil, Austin, TX 78712 USA

[20] Inst Fed Educ Ciencia & Tecnol Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ, Brazil

[21] Lowell Observ, 1400 West Mars Hill Rd, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 USA

[22] Ctr Astrophys Harvard & Smithsonian, 60 Garden St, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[23] CALTECH, Jet Prop Lab, Pasadena, CA USA

[24] Penn State Univ, Dept Astron & Astrophys, 525 Davey Lab, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[25] Penn State Univ, Ctr Exoplanets & Habitable Worlds, 525 Davey Lab, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[26] Penn State Univ, Ctr Astrostat, 525 Davey Lab, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[27] Penn State Univ, Inst Computat & Data Sci, University Pk, PA 16802 USA

[28] Smithsonian Astrophys Observ, Cambridge, MA USA

[29] Space Telescope Sci Inst, 3700 San Martin Dr, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA

[30] Orbital Sci Corp, 2401 East El Segundo Blvd,Suite 200, El Segundo, CA 90245 USA

[31] Univ Calif Berkeley, Lawrence Hall Sci, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[32] CALTECH, Dept Astron, Pasadena, CA 91125 USA

[33] NASA, Marshall Space Flight Ctr, Washington, DC 20546 USA

[34] Ball Aerosp & Technol Corp, Boulder, CO 80301 USA

[35] Inst Astrofis Canarias, E-38200 Tenerife, Spain

[36] Univ La Laguna, Dpto Astrofis, E-38205 Tenerife, Spain

[37] Millennium Engn & Integrat Serv, Moffett Field, CA 94035 USA

[38] Univ Southern Calif, Dept Phys & Astron, Los Angeles, CA 90089 USA

[39] Villanova Univ, Dept Astrophys & Planetary Sci, 800 Lancaster Ave, Villanova, PA 19085 USA

[40] Brigham Young Univ, Dept Phys & Astron, N283 ESC, Provo, UT 84602 USA

[41] Carnegie Observ, Pasadena, CA USA

[42] Jacobs Engn, Dallas, TX USA

[43] Rincon Res Corp, 101 North Wilmot Rd, Tucson, AZ 85711 USA

[44] Univ Nevada, 4505 South Maryland Pkwy, Las Vegas, NV 89154 USA

[45] Natl Sci Fdn, Div Astron Sci, 2415 Eisenhower Ave, Alexandria, VA 22314 USA

[46] San Diego State Univ, Dept Astron, 5500 Campanile Dr, San Diego, CA 92182 USA

[47] KBRwyle, Houston, TX USA

来源：

ASTRONOMICAL JOURNAL | 2021年 / 161卷 / 01期

基金：

美国国家航空航天局; 新加坡国家研究基金会; 美国国家科学基金会;

关键词：

Exoplanets;

D O I：

10.3847/1538-3881/abc418

中图分类号：

P1 [天文学];

学科分类号：

0704 ;

摘要：

We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define eta(circle plus) as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R-circle plus orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that eta(circle plus) for the conservative HZ is between 0.37(-0.21)(+0.48) (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60(-0.36)(+0.90) planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58(-0.33)(+0.73) and 0.88(-0.51)(+1.28) planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is similar to 6 pc away and there are similar to 4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.

引用

页数：32

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