Statistical evidences of seismo-ionospheric precursors applying receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve on the GPS total electron content in China

被引：23
作者：
Chen, Yuh-Ing [1 ]
Huang, Chi-Shen [1 ,2 ]
Liu, Jann-Yenq [2 ,3 ,4 ]
机构：
[1] Natl Cent Univ, Inst Stat, Chungli 320, Taiwan
[2] Natl Cent Univ, Inst Space Sci, Chungli 320, Taiwan
[3] Natl Cent Univ, Ctr Remote Sensing, Chungli 320, Taiwan
[4] Natl Space Org, Hsinchu 300, Taiwan
来源：
JOURNAL OF ASIAN EARTH SCIENCES | 2015年 / 114卷
关键词：
Seismo-ionospheric precursors; Total electron content; ROC curve; Z test; AUC; Youden index; EARTHQUAKES; TAIWAN;
D O I：
10.1016/j.jseaes.2015.05.028
中图分类号：
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号：
07 ;
摘要：
Evidence of the seismo-ionospheric precursor (SIP) is reported by statistically investigating the relationship between the total electron content (TEC) in global ionosphere map (GIM) and 56 M >= 6.0 earthquakes during 1998-2013 in China. A median-based method together with the z test is employed to examine the TEC variations 30 days before and after the earthquake. It is found that the TEC significantly decreases 0600-1000 LT 1-6 days before the earthquake, and anomalously increases in 3 time periods of 1300-1700 LT 12-15 days; 0000-0500 LT 15-17 days; and 0500-0900 LT 22-28 days before the earthquake. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is then used to evaluate the efficiency of TEC for predicting M 6.0 earthquakes in China during a specified time period. Statistical results suggest that the SIP is the significant TEC reduction in the morning period of 0600-1000 LT. The SIP is further confirmed since the area under the ROC curve is positively associated with the earthquake magnitude.
引用
收藏
页码：393 / 402
页数：10
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