Water Storage Variation and Its Possible Causes Detected by GRACE in the Volta River Basin

This study applies Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data and the WaterGAP (Water Global Analysis and Prognosis) Global Hydrology Model (WGHM) to investigate the influence of the Bui reservoir operation on water storage variation within the Volta River Basin (VRB). Variation in groundwater storage anomalies (GWSA) was estimated by combining GRACE-derived terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA), radar altimetry records, imagery-derived reservoir (Lake Volta and Bui) surface water storage anomalies (SWSA), and Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS)-simulated soil moisture storage anomalies (SMSA) from 2002 to 2016. Results showed that TWSA increased (1.30 +/- 0.23 cm/year) and decreased (-0.82 +/- 0.27 cm/year) during 2002-2011 and 2011-2016, respectively, within VRB, matching previous TWSA investigations in this area. It revealed that the multi-year averages of monthly GRACE-derived TWSA changes in 2011-2016 displayed an overall increasing trend, indicating storage increase in regional hydrology; while the Lake Volta water storage changes decreased. The GRACE-minus-WGHM residuals display an increasing trend in VRB water storage during the Bui reservoir impoundment during 2011-2016. The observed trend compares well with the estimated Bui reservoir SWSA, indicating that GRACE solutions can retrieve the true amplitude of large mass changes happening in a concentrated area, though Bui reservoir is much smaller than the resolution of GRACE global solutions. It also revealed that GWSA were almost stable from 2002 to 2006, before increasing and decreasing during 2006-2011 and 2012-2016 with rates of 2.67 +/- 0.34 cm/year and -1.80 +/- 0.32 cm/year, respectively. The observed trends in the GRACE-derived TWSA and GWSA changes are generally attributed to the hydro-meteorological conditions. This study shows that the effects of strong El-Nino Southern Oscillation events on the GWSA interannual variability within the VRB is short-term, with a lag of 6 months. This study specifically showed that the Bui reservoir operation significantly affects the TWSA changes and provides knowledge on groundwater storage changes within the VRB.