GEOLOGIC EVIDENCE FOR THREE GREAT EARTHQUAKES IN THE PAST 3400 YEARS OFF MYANMAR

Tectonic environments, recent stress and crustal strain observations, and historical descriptions of geomorphological changes and eyewitness accounts of the 1762 Bengal earthquake suggest that great earthquakes (M 8.0 or larger) can occur along the northward continuation of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake. We describe marine terraces along the Rakhine coast of Myanmar as evidence for three great earthquakes in the past 3400 years. Radiocarbon dating of coral remains suggests that the oldest terrace emerged three times, during 1395-740 BC, AD 805-1220 and AD 1585-1810. We assign the youngest age to the 1762 earthquake, which reportedly raised parts of the Burmese coast by 3-7m. These indicate that the great subduction-zone earthquakes have repeatedly occurred west off. Myanmar with an average recurrence interval of about 1000-2000 years. The time since the last earthquake, similar to 250 years, is much shorter than the average interval, hence the chance of next earthquakes in the near future may be considered as low. However, the variability in both uplift amounts and recurrence intervals suggests the next great earthquake could happen sooner or later than would be expected from the average interval.