Modelling urban-rural population growth in China

The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China. Two important components of urban population growth-rural to urban migration and transition-are considered. In previous research, rural to urban population transition was ignored and thus urbanization levels may be significantly underprojected. An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established in this research. These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions.