Triglyceride-glucose index and the risk of stroke and its subtypes in the general population: an 11-year follow-up

Background Triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index was recently suggested to be a reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance. We aim to investigate the associations between baseline and long-term TyG index with subsequent stroke and its subtypes in a community-based cohort. Methods A total of 97,653 participants free of history of stroke in the Kailuan Study were included. TyG index was calculated as ln (fasting triglyceride [mg/dL] x fasting glucose [mg/dL]/2). Baseline TyG index was measured during 2006-2007. Updated cumulative average TyG index used all available TyG index from baseline to the outcome events of interest or the end of follow up. The outcome was the first occurrence of stroke, including ischemic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage and subarachnoid hemorrhage. The associations of TyG index with outcomes were explored with Cox regression. Results During a median of 11.02 years of follow-up, 5122 participants developed stroke of whom 4277 were ischemic stroke, 880 intracerebral hemorrhage, and 144 subarachnoid hemorrhage. After adjusting for confounding variables, compared with participants in the lowest quartile of baseline TyG index, those in the third and fourth quartile were associated with an increased risk of stroke (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.22, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.12-1.33, and adjusted HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.21-1.44, respectively, P for trend < 0.001). We also found a linear association between baseline TyG index with stroke. Similar results were found for ischemic stroke. However, no significant associations were observed between baseline TyG index and risk of intracranial hemorrhage. Parallel results were observed for the associations of updated cumulative average TyG index with outcomes. Conclusions Elevated levels of both baseline and long-term updated cumulative average TyG index can independently predict stroke and ischemic stroke but not intracerebral hemorrhage in the general population during an 11-year follow-up.