A Comparison of Spatio-Temporal Disease Mapping Approaches Including an Application to Ischaemic Heart Disease in New South Wales, Australia

被引:25
作者
Anderson, Craig [1 ,2 ]
Ryan, Louise M. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Univ Technol Sydney, Sch Math & Phys Sci, 15 Broadway, Ultimo, NSW 2007, Australia
[2] ARC Ctr Excellence Math & Stat Frontiers ACEMS, Parkville, Vic 3010, Australia
基金
澳大利亚研究理事会;
关键词
spatio-temporal modelling; disease mapping; Bayesian; ischaemic heart disease; Moran's I; SPACE-TIME VARIATION; AIR-POLLUTION; MODELS; REGRESSION;
D O I
10.3390/ijerph14020146
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
The field of spatio-temporal modelling has witnessed a recent surge as a result of developments in computational power and increased data collection. These developments allow analysts to model the evolution of health outcomes in both space and time simultaneously. This paper models the trends in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in New South Wales, Australia over an eight-year period between 2006 and 2013. A number of spatio-temporal models are considered, and we propose a novel method for determining the goodness-of-fit for these models by outlining a spatio-temporal extension of the Moran's I statistic. We identify an overall decrease in the rates of IHD, but note that the extent of this health improvement varies across the state. In particular, we identified a number of remote areas in the north and west of the state where the risk stayed constant or even increased slightly.
引用
收藏
页数:16
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