Actual 10-year survivors and 10-year recurrence free survivors after primary liver resection for hepatocellular carcinoma in the 21st century: A single institution contemporary experience

Background At present, the majority of outcome studies of survival of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) post-liver resection (post-LR) present actuarial survival data, which often results in overestimation of survival. We sought to evaluate the actual 10-year survival post-LR for HCC and identify variables that are associated with long-term survival. Methods We performed a retrospective review of 600 consecutive patients who underwent primary LR for HCC from 2000 to 2010 at our institution. Twenty-eight patients (4.7%) with 90-day mortality and 125 patients who were lost to follow-up within 10 years were excluded leaving 447 patients who met the study criteria. Results There were 140 actual 10-year survivors of which 57 (40.7%) had a recurrence within 10 years. The actual 10-year overall survival (OS) rate of the 447 patients was 31.5% and the actual 10-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) was 18.6%. Multivariate analyses demonstrated that only age >65 years (OR, 0.29; p < .001) (OR, 0.973; p = .041) and presence of cirrhosis (OR. 0.37; p = .005) (OR, 0.31; p = .001) were independent factors negatively associated with actual 10-year OS and actual 10-year RFS, respectively. Conclusion Approximately one-third of patients will survive over 10 years after LR for HCC. Amongst these 10-year survivors, 41% had developed recurrent cancer within 10-years of follow-up.