Heavy-tailed sexual contact networks and monkeypox epidemiology in the global outbreak, 2022

被引：104

作者：

Endo, Akira ^{[1
,2
,3
]}

Murayama, Hiroaki ^{[4
]}

Abbott, Sam ^{[1
,2
]}

Ratnayake, Ruwan ^{[1
,2
]}

Pearson, Carl A. B. ^{[1
,2
,5
]}

Edmunds, W. John ^{[1
,2
]}

Fearon, Elizabeth ^{[2
,6
]}

Funk, Sebastian ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] London Sch Hyg Trop Med, Dept Infect Dis Epidemiol, London, England

[2] London Sch Hyg Trop Med, Ctr Math Modelling Infect Dis, London, England

[3] Nagasaki Univ, Sch Trop Med & Global Hlth, Nagasaki, Japan

[4] Int Univ Hlth & Welf, Sch Med, Narita, Japan

[5] Univ Stellenbosch, South African DSI NRF Ctr Excellence Epidemiol Mo, Stellenbosch, South Africa

[6] London Sch Hyg Trop Med, Dept Global Hlth & Dev, London, England

来源：

SCIENCE | 2022年 / 378卷 / 6615期

关键词：

VIRUS; TRANSMISSION;

D O I：

10.1126/science.add4507

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

The outbreak of monkeypox across non-endemic regions confirmed in May 2022 shows epidemiological features distinct from previously imported outbreaks, most notably its observed growth and predominance amongst men who have sex with men (MSM). We use a transmission model fitted to empirical sexual partnership data to show that the heavy-tailed sexual partnership distribution, in which a handful of individuals have disproportionately many partners, can explain the sustained growth of monkeypox among MSM despite the absence of such patterns previously. We suggest that the basic reproduction number (R0) for monkeypox over the MSM sexual network may be substantially above 1, which poses challenges to outbreak containment. Ensuring support and tailored messaging to facilitate prevention and early detection among MSM with high numbers of partners is warranted.

引用

页码：90 / +

页数：5

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