Areal Interpolation Using Parcel and Census Data in Highly Developed Urban Environments

Areal interpolation is routinely used when spatial data are unavailable at desired geographical units. While many methods are available, few of them were developed specifically for and tested in highly developed urban cores. Even fewer studied subpopulation or population characteristics. This paper explores both issues using parcel map and decennial census data as ancillary information. Using census blocks as intermediate zones, the method first disaggregates source-zone data to intermediate zones, then disaggregates data to parcel level in intermediate zones intersecting target zones, and finally aggregates intermediate-zone and parcel-level estimates to obtain target-zone estimates. Compared to areal weighting and residential proportion, the proposed method is significantly more accurate. All three methods perform the best on population count, and worst on spatially clustered subpopulations such as black/African American population. Quotient variables are more difficult to interpolate than count variables. The research demonstrates the utility of parcel and decennial census data for areal interpolation in highly developed urban cores, and calls for future research on subpopulation and population characteristics.