An Indirect Comparison of Everolimus Versus Axitinib in US Patients With Advanced Renal Cell Carcinoma in Whom Prior Sunitinib Therapy Failed

Purpose: The purpose of this study was to perform a weight-adjusted indirect comparison to approximate the relative efficacy of everolimus versus axitinib among patients with second-line metastatic renal cell carcinoma in whom sunitinib therapy previously failed. Methods: Individual patient data from the RECORD-1 (Renal Cell Cancer Treatment With Oral RAD001 Given Daily) Phase III clinical trial provided information for patients taking everolimus. Summary baseline clinical and demographic characteristics and progression-free survival (PFS) outcomes were available for patients taking odtinib who were included in the AXIS (axitinib versus sorafenib) Phase III clinical trial. A Bayesian latent class mixture model differentiating responders and nonresponders and with imbedded Weibull regression on PFS was used to identify sex, Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center risk score, and time receiving prior sunitinib therapy as prognostic factors for PFS based on posterior probability >95%. Patients taking everolimus were weighted up or down based on their combination of prognostic variables. Weights were calculated by dividing the proportion of patients observed in AXES for a given characteristic by the proportion observed in RECORD-1 and taking the product of the values derived for all three weighting variables considered. Weighted PFS distributions were derived with bootstrapped 95% Cis and compared with those reported for the AXES trial. Findings: After weighting, distributions of the 3 key baseline characteristics were more closely aligned between the 2 studies; however, some differences remained. A slightly lower rate of poor-risk patients was evident in RECORD-1 (30%) versus AXIS (36%), and a 9% lower proportion of males was observed in the everolimus group compared with the axitinib group. Distributions of time receiving prior sunitinib therapy were almost equivalent between the treatment arms. A median PFS of 4.7 months (95% CI, 3.5-10.6 months) was observed for patients in the weighted everolimus group compared with 4.8 months (95% CI, 4.5-6.4 months) in the AXIS trial. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier HS Journals, Inc.