Estimating the effect of HIV/AIDS on fertility among Malawian women using demographic and health survey data

Several studies have shown that HIV is an important distal factor that affects a woman's fertility. This study investigates the effect of HIV on fertility among Malawian women using data from the 2004 and 2010 demographic and health surveys. Specifically, the study assesses fertility differentials between HIV-positive and HIV-negative women and the changes in the relationship between HIV and fertility during the study period. Age-specific fertility rates and logistic regressions are used to investigate these objectives. The results show lower age-specific fertility rates (except for the 15-19-year-old age group) and probabilities of giving birth for HIV-positive relative to HIV-negative women before and after controlling for confounding factors respectively. The odds of giving birth for an HIV-positive woman were 34% lower in the period 12 months before the 2004 survey compared to an HIV-negative woman and 25% lower before the 2010 survey (p < 0.01). We think that the scaling up of antiretroviral treatment has contributed to the increase in the likelihood of giving birth among HIV-positive women between 2004 and 2010, more plausibly entailing a possible reduction in HIV sub-fecundity.