Crop modelling for integrated assessment of risk to food production from climate change

被引：230

作者：

Ewert, F. ^{[1
]}

Rotter, R. P. ^{[2
]}

Bindi, M. ^{[3
]}

Webber, H. ^{[1
]}

Trnka, M. ^{[4
,5
]}

Kersebaum, K. C. ^{[6
]}

Olesen, J. E. ^{[7
]}

van Ittersum, M. K. ^{[8
]}

Janssen, S. ^{[9
]}

Rivington, M. ^{[10
]}

Semenov, M. A. ^{[11
]}

Wallach, D. ^{[12
]}

Porter, J. R. ^{[13
,14
]}

Stewart, D. ^{[15
,16
]}

Verhagen, J. ^{[17
]}

Gaiser, T. ^{[1
]}

Palosuo, T. ^{[2
]}

Tao, F. ^{[2
]}

Nendel, C. ^{[6
]}

Roggero, P. P. ^{[18
,19
]}

Bartosova, L. ^{[4
]}

Asseng, S. ^{[20
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Bonn, Inst Crop Sci & Resource Conservat INRES, Crop Sci Grp, Katzenburgweg 5, D-53115 Bonn, Germany

[2] MTT Agrifood Res Finland, Plant Prod Res, Mikkeli 50100, Finland

[3] Univ Florence, Dept Agri food Prod & Environm Sci, I-50144 Florence, Italy

[4] Mendel Univ Brno, Dept Agrosyst & Bioclimatol, Brno 61300, Czech Republic

[5] Acad Sci Czech Republ, Global Change Res Ctr, Vvi, Brno 60300, Czech Republic

[6] Leibniz Ctr Agr Landscape Res, Inst Landscape Syst Anal, D-15374 Muncheberg, Germany

[7] Aarhus Univ, Dept Agroecol, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark

[8] Wageningen Univ, Plant Prod Syst Grp, NL-6700 AK Wageningen, Netherlands

[9] Wageningen Univ, Alterra, Earth Informat, NL-6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands

[10] James Hutton Inst, Aberdeen AB15 8QH, Scotland

[11] Rothamsted Res, Computat & Syst Biol Dept, Harpenden AL5 2JQ, Herts, England

[12] INRA, UMR Agrosyst & Dev Territorial AGIR 1248, F-31326 Castanet Tolosan, France

[13] Univ Greenwich, Nat Resources Inst, Greenwich, England

[14] Univ Copenhagen, Fac Sci, DK-1168 Copenhagen, Denmark

[15] James Hutton Inst, Dundee DD2 5DA, Scotland

[16] Norwegian Inst Agr & Environm Res, Bioforsk, Tromso, Norway

[17] Wageningen Univ & Res Ctr, Plant Res Int, NL-6700 AP Wageningen, Netherlands

[18] Univ Sassari, Nucleo Ric Desertificaz, I-07100 Sassari, Italy

[19] Univ Sassari, Dipartimento Agr, I-07100 Sassari, Italy

[20] Univ Florida, Agr & Biol Engn Dept, Gainesville, FL 32611 USA

来源：

ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE | 2015年 / 72卷

基金：

英国生物技术与生命科学研究理事会;

关键词：

Uncertainty; Scaling; Integrated assessment; Risk assessment; Adaptation; Crop models; CHANGE ADAPTATION STRATEGIES; HIGH-TEMPERATURE STRESS; CHANGE IMPACTS; LAND-USE; NITROGEN DYNAMICS; SIMULATION-MODELS; WHEAT PRODUCTION; ATMOSPHERIC CO2; YIELD RESPONSE; WATER-DEFICIT;

D O I：

10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.12.003

中图分类号：

TP39 [计算机的应用];

学科分类号：

081203 ; 0835 ;

摘要：

The complexity of risks posed by climate change and possible adaptations for crop production has called for integrated assessment and modelling (IAM) approaches linking biophysical and economic models. This paper attempts to provide an overview of the present state of crop modelling to assess climate change risks to food production and to which extent crop models comply with IAM demands. Considerable progress has been made in modelling effects of climate variables, where crop models best satisfy IAM demands. Demands are partly satisfied for simulating commonly required assessment variables. However, progress on the number of simulated crops, uncertainty propagation related to model parameters and structure, adaptations and scaling are less advanced and lagging behind IAM demands. The limitations are considered substantial and apply to a different extent to all crop models. Overcoming these limitations will require joint efforts, and consideration of novel modelling approaches. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：287 / 303

页数：17

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