Exploring the Spatial and Temporal Changes of Carbon Storage in Different Development Scenarios in Foshan, China

Carbon storage (CS) is strongly associated with climate change and ecosystem services. Herein, taking Foshan City, Guangdong Province, China as the study object, analysis was performed upon the potential impacts of the urban-rural relationship of CS by combining the Integrated Assessment of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) and the Patch Generation Land-use Simulation (PLUS) models. Based on three different development plans under regional policies, land-use/ land-cover (LULC) changes in Foshan City in 2035 were simulated. The results show that (i) Foshan City experienced rapid urban expansion from 2010 to 2020 spreading from the central area to the outer circle in a cascading manner. Urban land use mainly encroached on ecological land during these 10 years. (ii) The CS in Foshan City from 2010 to 2020 showed an increase followed by a decrease, and the simulations estimated a continuous loss of the CS in Foshan City by 2035. (iii) There was spatial heterogeneity in the CS changes in Foshan. From 2010 to 2020, the northern part of Sanshui District and the eastern part of Chancheng District experienced the greatest economic loss of CS. The carbon loss will further increase in future development scenarios. This research can provide vital references for government administrators to formulate valid development patterns and ecological conservation strategies.