Early detection of lung cancer recurrence after stereotactic ablative radiation therapy: radiomics system design

Stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) is the standard treatment recommendation for Stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients who are inoperable or who refuse surgery. This option is well tolerated by even unfit patients and has a low recurrence risk post-treatment. However, SABR induces changes in the lung parenchyma that can appear similar to those of recurrence, and the difference between the two at an early follow-up time point is not easily distinguishable for an expert physician. We hypothesized that a radiomics signature derived from standard-of-care computed tomography (CT) imaging can detect cancer recurrence within six months of SABR treatment. This study reports on the design phase of our work, with external validation planned in future work. In this study, we performed cross-validation experiments with four feature selection approaches and seven classifiers on an 81-patient data set. We extracted 104 radiomics features from the consolidative and the pen-consolidative regions on the follow-up CT scans. The best results were achieved using the sum of estimated Mahalanobis distances (Maha) for supervised forward feature selection and a trainable automatic radial basis support vector classifier (RBSVC). This system produced an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.84, an error rate of 16.4%, a false negative rate of 12.7%, and a false positive rate of 20.0% for leave one patient out cross-validation. This suggests that once validated on an external data set, radiomics could reliably detect post-SABR recurrence and form the basis of a tool assisting physicians in making salvage treatment decisions.