The quest for improved air quality may push China to continue its CO2 reduction beyond the Paris Commitment

被引:134
作者
Xing, Jia [1 ,2 ]
Lu, Xi [1 ,2 ]
Wang, Shuxiao [1 ,2 ]
Wang, Tong [1 ,2 ]
Ding, Dian [1 ,2 ]
Yu, Sha [3 ]
Shindell, Drew [4 ]
Ou, Yang [5 ]
Morawska, Lidia [6 ]
Li, Siwei [7 ]
Ren, Lu [1 ,2 ]
Zhang, Yuqiang [4 ]
Loughlin, Dan [5 ]
Zheng, Haotian [1 ,2 ]
Zhao, Bin [8 ]
Liu, Shuchang [1 ,2 ]
Smith, Kirk R. [9 ,10 ]
Hao, Jiming [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] Tsinghua Univ, Sch Environm, State Key Joint Lab Environm Simulat & Pollut Con, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
[2] State Environm Protect Key Lab Sources & Control, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China
[3] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Joint Global Change Res Inst, College Pk, MD 20740 USA
[4] Duke Univ, Nicholas Sch Environm, Durham, NC 27708 USA
[5] US EPA, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27711 USA
[6] Queensland Univ Technol, Int Lab Air Qual & Hlth, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia
[7] Wuhan Univ, Sch Remote Sensing & Informat Engn, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China
[8] Pacific Northwest Natl Lab, Richland, WA 99352 USA
[9] Univ Calif Berkeley, Global Environm Hlth, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA
[10] Collaborat Clean Air Policy Ctr, New Delhi 110003, India
基金
国家重点研发计划; 中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
air quality; CO2; energy policy; cobenefit; China; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODEL; GLOBAL BURDEN; POLLUTION; HEALTH; BENEFITS; CLIMATE; MITIGATION; MORTALITY; EMISSIONS; EXPOSURE;
D O I
10.1073/pnas.2013297117
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
China is challenged with the simultaneous goals of improving air quality and mitigating climate change. The "Beautiful China" strategy, launched by the Chinese government in 2020, requires that all cities in China attain 35 mu g/m(3) or below for annual mean concentration of PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 mu m) by 2035. Meanwhile, China adopts a portfolio of low-carbon policies to meet its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) pledged in the Paris Agreement. Previous studies demonstrated the cobenefits to air pollution reduction from implementing low-carbon energy policies. Pathways for China to achieve dual targets of both air quality and CO2 mitigation, however, have not been comprehensively explored. Here, we couple an integrated assessment model and an air quality model to evaluate air quality in China through 2035 under the NDC scenario and an alternative scenario (Co-Benefit Energy [CBE]) with enhanced low-carbon policies. Results indicate that some Chinese cities cannot meet the PM2.5 target under the NDC scenario by 2035, even with the strictest end-of-pipe controls. Achieving the air quality target would require further reduction in emissions of multiple air pollutants by 6 to 32%, driving additional 22% reduction in CO2 emissions relative to the NDC scenario. Results show that the incremental health benefit from improved air quality of CBE exceeds 8 times the additional costs of CO2 mitigation, attributed particularly to the cost-effective reduction in household PM2.5 exposure. The additional low-carbon energy polices required for China's air quality targets would lay an important foundation for its deep decarbonization aligned with the 2 degrees C global temperature target.
引用
收藏
页码:29535 / 29542
页数:8
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