The effects of geopolitical risk and economic policy uncertainty on dry bulk shipping freight rates

被引：23
作者：
Drobetz, Wolfgang [1 ]
Gavriilidis, Konstantinos [2 ]
Krokida, Styliani-Iris [3 ]
Tsouknidis, Dimitris [4 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Hamburg, Fac Business Adm, Hamburg, Germany
[2] Univ Stirling, Management Sch, Stirling, Scotland
[3] Athens Univ Econ & Business, Dept Accounting & Finance, Athens, Greece
[4] Univ Piraeus, Dept Maritime Studies, Piraeus, Greece
来源：
APPLIED ECONOMICS | 2021年 / 53卷 / 19期
关键词：
Geopolitical risk; economic policy uncertainty; shipping freight rates; bayesian VAR; VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIONS; INVESTMENT; DEMAND; VOLATILITY; DECISIONS; SHOCKS; SPOT;
D O I：
10.1080/00036846.2020.1857329
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
We examine the effects of geopolitical risk (GPR) and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on shipping freight rates using a Bayesian VAR model. A positive shock to global GPR has an immediate positive, but gradually diminishing, effect on dry bulk shipping freight rates. This effect is driven by global rather than country-specific GPR shocks. Positive shocks to EPU indices for the U.S., Brazil, and China trigger a negative response of dry bulk shipping freight rates that builds gradually over several months. Historical cumulative effects of both GPR and EPU shocks on freight rates can be large and of different signs during different subperiods. Our results are important for both shipowners and charterers when fixing chartering strategies and prioritizing investments in newbuilding or second-hand vessels.
引用
收藏
页码：2218 / 2229
页数：12
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