Costs and financial consequences of the changing epidemiological profile in Mexico

This article presents an analysis of health-care costs and financial consequences of changes in the epidemiological profile in Mexico. Four tracer diseases were selected to conduct this study: two non-communicable diseases (arterial hypertension and diabetes) and two communicable ones (diarrhea and pneumonia). Costs involved in disease case-management, both in economic and planning terms, predict the internal competition for resources to finance health services for each tracer disease. In addition, the change in the number of cases expected during the study period highlights the process of internal competition and adds an element of intrinsic competition in the management of ambulatory and hospitalized cases for each disease. Study results support the conclusion that if preventive programs remain unchanged, the increasing demands for curative health care may cause great financial and organizational challenges to the health care system of middle-income countries like Mexico. (C) 1997 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd.