Classification of CMIP5 Future Climate Responses by the Tropical Sea Surface Temperature Changes

被引：128

作者：

Mizuta, Ryo ^{[1
]}

Arakawa, Osamu ^{[2
]}

Ose, Tomoaki ^{[1
]}

Kusunoki, Shoji ^{[1
]}

Endo, Hirokazu ^{[1
]}

Kitoh, Akio ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Meteorol Res Inst, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 3050052, Japan

[2] Univ Tsukuba, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan

来源：

SOLA | 2014年 / 10卷

关键词：

PRECIPITATION CHANGE; PATTERNS; RICHER;

D O I：

10.2151/sola.2014-035

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Climate changes for the end of the 21st century projected by Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models are classified into three clusters by a cluster analysis of annual-mean tropical sea surface temperature (SST) change patterns. The classified SST change patterns are featured by the zonal gradient of the change in the equatorial Pacific and inter-hemispheric contrast of the warming. Precipitation and atmospheric circulation responses are composited for the clusters, and their relationships to the SST changes are examined. Precipitation increase is larger where SST warming is larger than surroundings and vice versa. Common precipitation and atmospheric circulation responses for each cluster are found also over tropical lands and the extratropics as well as in the tropical oceans, suggesting that some remote effects of the tropical SST change patterns could be one reason for less agreement among CMIP5 models in climate changes.

引用

页码：167 / 171

页数：5

共 14 条

[11] Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM [J].