International Trade as a Limiting Factor in Democratization: an Analysis of Subnational Regions in Post-Communist Russia

The paper investigates the interplay of economic development and democratization in Russian regions. It introduces the new concept of a limiting factor, i.e., a particular resource with a highly localized source that is crucial for economic development. Based on both econometric analysis and detailed case studies, the paper shows that for a large subset of Russian regions, access to trade with the countries of the former Soviet Union constitutes a limiting factor, which on one hand is necessary to sustain economic growth but on the other strengthens the likelihood of a nondemocratic outcome in local regime transition. We also provide some tentative conjectures regarding other instances of a limiting factor that can be found worldwide both currently and historically.