Incorporating end-user models and associated uncertainties to investigate multiple stakeholder preferences in system design

The essence of systems engineering lies in enabling rational decision-making that is consistent with the preferences of the system's stakeholders. Modern approaches, such as value-driven design, attempt to convey the true preferences of the stakeholder using mathematical formulations like value models. A critical step to the formation of value models is the identification of the stakeholders. A primary stakeholder must be identified and then it must be determined how the other stakeholders' preferences impact the preference of the primary, if they do at all. This paper looks at three stakeholders of an electric vehicle system, all of which could be considered the primary stakeholder dependent on the situation. Novel customer, commercial, and government-oriented value models are created. To understand the impact of customers on the primary stakeholder's designs, an end-user value-based demand model is developed and a method for integrating end-user preferences into the manufacturer's value model is demonstrated. Uncertainties associated with the end-users, including those associated with the economy, are quantified and incorporated into a value-based design framework through Monte Carlo simulations. Possible stakeholder risk attitudes are discussed and a rational decision-making strategy to maximize stakeholder's system value under uncertainty is presented. The resulting designs and the influences of the multiple stakeholders are discussed, showing that the identification and incorporation of the important stakeholders are critical to the systems engineering process and value-based design in particular.