Impacts of anthropogenic warming and uneven regional socio-economic development on global river flood risk

被引：34

作者：

Gu, Xihui ^{[1
,2
]}

Zhang, Qiang ^{[2
,3
,4
]}

Li, Jianfeng ^{[5
]}

Chen, Deliang ^{[6
]}

Singh, Vijay P. ^{[7
,8
,9
]}

Zhang, Yongqiang ^{[10
]}

Liu, Jianyu ^{[11
]}

Shen, Zexi ^{[2
,3
,4
]}

Yu, Huiqian ^{[2
,3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] China Univ Geosci, Sch Environm Studies, Dept Atmospher Sci, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China

[2] Beijing Normal Univ, Key Lab Environm Change & Nat Disaster, Minist Educ, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[3] Beijing Normal Univ, Acad Disaster Reduct & Emergency Management, Fac Geog Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[4] Beijing Normal Univ, State Key Lab Earth Surface Proc & Resource Ecol, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[5] Hong Kong Baptist Univ, Dept Geog, Hong Kong, Peoples R China

[6] Univ Gothenburg, Dept Earth Sci, Box 460, Gothenburg, Sweden

[7] Texas A&M Univ, Dept Biol & Agr Engn, College Stn, TX USA

[8] Texas A&M Univ, Zachry Dept Civil Engn, College Stn, TX USA

[9] UAE Univ, Natl Water Ctr, Al Ain, U Arab Emirates

[10] Chinese Acad Sci, Inst Geog Sci & Nat Resources Res, Key Lab Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Proc, Beijing 100101, Peoples R China

[11] China Univ Geosci, Sch Earth Sci, Lab Crit Zone Evolut, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China

来源：

JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY | 2020年 / 590卷

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

Flood exposures; Socio-economic development; Multi-model framework; Global warming; 1.5; DEGREES-C; CLIMATE-CHANGE; WATER AVAILABILITY; BIAS CORRECTION; MODEL; EXTREMES; PRECIPITATION; RUNOFF; STATIONARITY; SIMULATIONS;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125262

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

Employing a mull-model framework, we estimate the impacts of contrasting warming levels and uneven regional socio-economic development on area, population and gross domestic product (GDP) exposures to flood magnitude and variability in global Flood-Affected Regions (FARs). These exposures to flood variability show persistent increases in FARs, but to flood magnitude only in East and South Asia. Globally, the increases in these exposures are not projected in moderate but extreme floods. Specifically, the areal exposure would be decreased (increased) by 1.8%/degrees C (1.9%/degrees C) for moderate (extreme) floods; the reduced population exposure to extreme floods can be three times higher than that to moderate floods when limiting 2 degrees C to 1.5 degrees C warming. Rapid regional economic growth of East and South Asia (whose GDP accounts for 9.8% of FARs in year 2000 to 18.5% in year 2025) would shift global GDP exposure from a decrease of 2.5%/degrees C to an increase of 1.7%/degrees C.

引用

页数：13

共 81 条

[81] The critical role of the routing scheme in simulating peak river discharge in global hydrological models [J].

Zhao, Fang ;

Veldkamp, Ted I. E. ;

Frieler, Katja ;

Schewe, Jacob ;

Ostberg, Sebastian ;

Willner, Sven ;

Schauberger, Bernhard ;

Gosling, Simon N. ;

Schmied, Hannes Mueller ;

Portmann, Felix T. ;

Leng, Guoyong ;

Huang, Maoyi ;

Liu, Xingcai ;

Tang, Qiuhong ;

Hanasaki, Naota ;

Biemans, Hester ;

Gerten, Dieter ;

Satoh, Yusuke ;

Pokhrel, Yadu ;

Stacke, Tobias ;

Ciais, Philippe ;

Chang, Jinfeng ;

Ducharne, Agnes ;

Guimberteau, Matthieu ;

Wada, Yoshihide ;

Kim, Hyungjun ;

Yamazaki, Dai .

ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 2017, 12 (07)

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 →