A Long-Term Forecast Model of Spring Runoff: The Case of the Belaya River

被引：1

作者：

Vasil'ev, D. Yu. ^{[1
,2
]}

Vodopyanov, V. V. ^{[1
]}

Zayzeva, G. S. ^{[3
]}

Zakirzyanov, Sh. I. ^{[1
]}

Semenov, V. A. ^{[2
,4
]}

Sivokhip, Zh. T. ^{[5
]}

Chibilev, A. A. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Ufa State Aviat Tech Univ, Ufa 450008, Russia

[2] Russian Acad Sci, Obukhov Inst Atmospher Phys, Moscow 119017, Russia

[3] Russian Hydrometeorol Serv, Bashkir Dept Hydrometeorol & Environm Monitoring, Ufa 450105, Russia

[4] Russian Acad Sci, Inst Geog, Moscow, Russia

[5] Russian Acad Sci, Ural Branch, Steppe Inst, Orenburg 460000, Russia

来源：

DOKLADY EARTH SCIENCES | 2019年 / 486卷 / 02期

关键词：

442.1 Flood Control - 444.1 Surface Water;

D O I：

10.1134/S1028334X19060345

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

The results of long-term forecasting of the spring runoff in the Belaya River basin based on the water-balance model are presented. The structure and parameters of the water-balance model equations are optimized by the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm with restrictions imposed on the input data values. The obtained values of the equation coefficients are checked according to the Delta/sigma criterion adopted in the hydrometeorological service. The reliability of the forecasting procedure is assessed by statistical calculations of the stability of their parameters and test calculations on the independent sample. All equations obtained during the numerical experiment can be suitable for making forecasts.

引用

页码：724 / 727

页数：4

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