Prediction of heart failure outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: Validation of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Heart Failure in Diabetes (TRS-HFDM) in patients in the ACCORD trial

Aim To investigate the ability of the Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction Risk Score for Heart Failure in Diabetes (TRS-HFDM) to stratify patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and high cardiovascular risk for heart failure (HF) hospitalization. Materials and Methods We used data from the control group of the Action to Control Cardiovascular Risk in Diabetes Study Group (ACCORD) trial (n = 5123; mean follow-up 4.8 years). The TRS-HFDM includes: prior HF (2 points), atrial fibrillation (1 point), coronary artery disease (1 point), estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) (1 point), and urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (>300 mg/g: 2 points; 30-300 mg/g: 1 point). We evaluated the discrimination (Harrell's C-index) and calibration (Nam-D'Agostino calibration statistic) of the TRS-HFDM with regard to time to HF hospitalization or death due to HF. Results The mean age of the participants was 62.8 +/- 6.6 years, and 38% were women. The prevalences of TRS-HFDM 0, 1, 2, 3 and >= 4 were 42.1%, 34.9%, 14.6%, 6.0% and 2.5%, respectively. Increasing TRS-HFDM corresponded to an increasing HF risk: 1.3 per 1000 person-years for a TRS-HFDM of 0 to 64.7 per 1000 person-years for TRS-HFDM of >= 4. The TRS-HFDM demonstrated robust discrimination of HF outcomes (C-index 0.78). Furthermore, the score was well calibrated for HF outcomes (calibration statistic P = 0.13). Similar results were seen in participants without baseline HF (C-index 0.75). Conclusion The TRS-HFDM discriminates HF-specific risk among people with T2DM. The use of TRS-HFDM to identify those who would maximally benefit from therapies that reduce HF risk warrants evaluation.