Stream flow trends in up and midstream of Kirindi Oya river basin in Sri Lanka and its linkages to rainfall

Trend analysis of hydro-climatic variables provide useful information for effective planning, designing and management of water resources and agricultural production. Trends in observed stream flow at upstream and midstream gauging stations (GS), Wellawaya, Thanamalwila & rainfall and temperature in the Kirindi Oya river basin were assessed using the Mann-Kendall, Modified Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope. Average rainfalls for the two catchments and for the entire basin were computed using 'Thessen polygon' method. The relationships between trends in stream flow and catchment rainfall were studied by Spearman's Rho correlation coefficient (rho). Five year Moving averaged Standardize Anomalies (FMSA) of both annual stream flow and rainfall at Wellawaya and Thanamalwila catchments were in a non-significant (p < 0.05) decreasing trend for 1994 to 2010.Though there was a positive correlation between annual catchment rainfall and stream flow of these two catchments, correlation was significant (p < 0.05) only at Thanamalwila (0.69) suggesting that the variation of annual stream flow at Thanamalwila GS was mainly attributed to the variation of catchment rainfall. However, variation of stream flow during North East Monsoon (NEM) season was mainly attributed to the variation of respective catchment rainfall of both the catchments as evident by significant higher 'rho' at Wellawaya (0.61) and Thanamalwila (0.69). This study also found that trend of FMSA of South West Monsoon (SWM) rain was significantly (p < 0.05) decreasing for the entire basin, Thanamalwila and Wellawaya sub-catchments. Stream flow at Wellawaya GS during SWM was also found to be significantly decreasing while Thanamalwila stream flow was non-significantly decreasing. Both rainfall and stream flow during First Inter Monsoon (FM) was in a significant increasing trend particularly in the month of April. These observed trends during SWM and FIM suggest an apparent early onset of SWM in the basin, or drastic deviation in receiving rain during SWM in the Kirindi Oya river basin.