WRF inversion base height ensembles for simulating marine boundary layer stratocumulus

被引:9
|
作者
Zhong, Xiaohui [1 ]
Sahu, Dipak K. [1 ]
Kleissl, Jan [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif San Diego, Ctr Renewable Resources & Integrat, Dept Mech & Aerosp Engn, 9500 Gilman Dr, La Jolla, CA 92093 USA
关键词
WRF; IBH; MBL; Stratocumulus; SOUTHEAST PACIFIC; MODEL; PREDICTION; SCHEMES; CONVECTION; FORECASTS; OCEAN;
D O I
10.1016/j.solener.2017.02.021
中图分类号
TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];
学科分类号
0807 ; 0820 ;
摘要
Increasing distributed rooftop solar photovoltaic generation in the southern California coast necessitates accurate solar forecasts. In summertime mornings marine boundary layer stratocumulus commonly covers the southern California coast. The inland extent of cloud cover varies primarily depending on the temperature inversion base height (IBH, i.e. boundary layer height) and topography as confirmed using radiosonde sounding measurement and satellite irradiance data. Most operational numerical weather prediction models consistently overestimate irradiance and underpredict cloud cover extent and cloud thickness, presumably due to an underprediction of IBH. A thermodynamic method was developed to modify the boundary layer temperature and moisture profiles to better represent the boundary layer structure in the Weather and Research Forecasting model (WRF). Validation against satellite global horizontal irradiance (GHI) demonstrated that the best IBH ensemble improves GHI accuracy by 23% mean absolute error compared to the baseline WRF model and is similar to 24-h persistence forecasts for coastal marine layer region. The spatial error maps showed deeper inland cloud cover. Validation against ground observations showed that IBH ensembles were able to outperform persistence forecast at coastal stations. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:50 / 64
页数:15
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