Habitat-specific demography and conservation of Geoffroy's cats in a human-dominated landscape

The understanding of the spatial structure and dynamics of populations can guide conservation decisions, but studies of this type focused on small (< 7-kg) carnivores are rare. We compared survival, reproduction, and dispersal of radiocollared Geoffroy's cats (Leopardus geoffroyi) in a protected area and adjacent cattle ranches in Argentina to assess the effects of livestock management and its associated disturbances (i.e., hunting by humans) on the demography of this fend. Thirteen cats in the park and 13 in the ranches were radiotracked for up to 556 days in 2007-2008. We evaluated the Geoffloy's cat population trajectory at the landscape level using a stage-structured, stochastic matrix model based on our estimated vital rates. The study occurred during a prolonged drought, likely affecting estimated vital rates. Survival in the ranches was 52% lower than in the park; mortalities were due to intraguild predation in the park and were human-related in the ranches. Dispersal from the ranches was 32% lower than from the park and dispersal distances were up to 128 km. The number of cubs per litter was similar between areas. Assuming persistence of drought conditions and estimated vital rates, the simulated metapopulation rapidly collapsed and cat survival on ranches was the vital rate to which the model was most sensitive. Because projected climatic scenarios predict increased drought frequency for the region, we explored management options that would enhance chances of persistence, simulating 2 "adaptation" strategies: hunting restrictions on ranches and expanding protected areas. More than doubling of cat survival on ranches or a 9-fold increase in protected area extension would be required, involving major investments, to avoid the extinction of this cat metapopulation if droughts become prevalent. Our analysis may be helpful to improve our predictive capacity to identify new threats and facilitate adaptation strategies for Geoffroy's cat or other similar carnivores.