UNITY: CONFRONTING SUPERNOVA COSMOLOGY'S STATISTICAL AND SYSTEMATIC UNCERTAINTIES IN A UNIFIED BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK

被引：64

作者：

Rubin, D. ^{[1
,2
]}

Aldering, G. ^{[2
]}

Barbary, K. ^{[2
]}

Boone, K. ^{[2
,3
]}

Chappell, G. ^{[1
]}

Currie, M. ^{[1
]}

Deustua, S. ^{[4
]}

Fagrelius, P. ^{[2
,3
]}

Fruchter, A. ^{[4
]}

Hayden, B. ^{[2
]}

Lidman, C. ^{[5
]}

Nordin, J. ^{[6
]}

Perlmutter, S. ^{[2
,3
]}

Saunders, C. ^{[2
,3
]}

Sofiatti, C. ^{[2
,3
]}

机构：

[1] Florida State Univ, Dept Phys, Tallahassee, FL 32306 USA

[2] EO Lawrence Berkeley Natl Lab, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[3] Univ Calif Berkeley, Dept Phys, Berkeley, CA 94720 USA

[4] Space Telescope Sci Inst, Baltimore, MD 21218 USA

[5] Australian Astron Observ, Epping, NSW 1710, Australia

[6] Humboldt Univ, Inst Phys, D-12489 Berlin, Germany

来源：

ASTROPHYSICAL JOURNAL | 2015年 / 813卷 / 02期

关键词：

dark energy; methods: statistical; supernovae: general; HUBBLE-SPACE-TELESCOPE; DARK ENERGY SURVEY; IA SUPERNOVAE; LEGACY SURVEY; LIGHT CURVES; SDSS-II; EJECTA VELOCITY; STAR-FORMATION; HOST GALAXIES; CONSTRAINTS;

D O I：

10.1088/0004-637X/813/2/137

中图分类号：

P1 [天文学];

学科分类号：

0704 ;

摘要：

While recent supernova (SN) cosmology research has benefited from improved measurements, current analysis approaches are not statistically optimal and will prove insufficient for future surveys. This paper discusses the limitations of current SN cosmological analyses in treating outliers, selection effects, shape-and color-standardization relations, unexplained dispersion, and heterogeneous observations. We present a new Bayesian framework, called UNITY (Unified Nonlinear Inference for Type-Ia cosmologY), that incorporates significant improvements in our ability to confront these effects. We apply the framework to real SN observations and demonstrate smaller statistical and systematic uncertainties. We verify earlier results that SNe Ia require nonlinear shape and color standardizations, but we now include these nonlinear relations in a statistically well-justified way. This analysis was primarily performed blinded, in that the basic framework was first validated on simulated data before transitioning to real data. We also discuss possible extensions of the method.

引用

页数：15

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