New airline entry rates in deregulated air transport markets

This paper studies the influencing factors on entry (certification) of new airlines into the US airline industry over 21 years (1979-1999). These rates exhibit considerable fluctuations over the observed period. We analyze the US airline industry for a period of 21 years to determine the relationship of the observed fluctuations in the entry rates with political and extraordinary events, economic conditions and several industry specific variables. We present maximum likelihood estimates of an entry model on the negative Binomial distribution. This methodology reflects the discrete nature of the dependent variable. The results support the notions of positive macro-economic and industry specific developments on the entry opportunities of new airline companies. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.