The economic costs of planting, preserving, and managing the world's forests to mitigate climate change

被引:109
作者
Austin, K. G. [1 ]
Baker, J. S. [1 ,2 ]
Sohngen, B. L. [3 ]
Wade, C. M. [1 ]
Daigneault, A. [4 ]
Ohrel, S. B. [5 ]
Ragnauth, S. [5 ]
Bean, A. [1 ]
机构
[1] RTI Int, 3040 E Cornwallis Rd, Durham, NC 27709 USA
[2] North Carolina State Univ, Dept Forestry & Environm Resources, 2800 Faucette Dr, Raleigh, NC 27607 USA
[3] Ohio State Univ, Dept Agr Environm & Dev Econ, Columbus, OH 43210 USA
[4] Univ Maine, Sch Forest Resources, Orono, ME 04469 USA
[5] US EPA, 1200 Penn Ave NW, Washington, DC 20460 USA
关键词
CARBON SEQUESTRATION; SEQUESTERING CARBON; BIOMASS ENERGY; LAND-USE; EMISSIONS; MODEL;
D O I
10.1038/s41467-020-19578-z
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Forests are critical for stabilizing our climate, but costs of mitigation over space, time, and stakeholder group remain uncertain. Using the Global Timber Model, we project mitigation potential and costs for four abatement activities across 16 regions for carbon price scenarios of $5-$100/tCO(2). We project 0.6-6.0 GtCO(2) yr(-1) in global mitigation by 2055 at costs of 2-393 billion USD yr(-1), with avoided tropical deforestation comprising 30-54% of total mitigation. Higher prices incentivize larger mitigation proportions via rotation and forest management activities in temperate and boreal biomes. Forest area increases 415-875 Mha relative to the baseline by 2055 at prices $35-$100/tCO(2), with intensive plantations comprising <7% of this increase. Mitigation costs borne by private land managers comprise less than one-quarter of total costs. For forests to contribute similar to 10% of mitigation needed to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C, carbon prices will need to reach $281/tCO(2) in 2055.
引用
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页数:9
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