Population estimates, density-dependence and the risk of disease outbreaks in the Alpine ibex Capra ibex

Wildlife monitoring and the identification of factors associated with disease outbreaks are major goals in wildlife conservation. We reviewed demographic and epidemiological data for the Alpine ibex Capra ibex from 1975-2013 to characterize the species' abundance and distribution dynamics on a large scale. We also explored methodological bias in monitoring and analyzed the factors potentially associated with the risk of disease outbreaks. Our results revealed that the overall abundance and distribution of Alpine ibex appeared to be increasing at both national and intemational scales, in agreement with the IUCN's 'Least Concern' conservation status on the international scale and on the national scale for Italy, Switzerland and France. Our comparative analysis of common monitoring methods highlights the fact that abundance values from counts are underestimated and suggests that the Alpine ibex is more abundant than is usually reported. The appearance and persistence of disease outbreaks (e.g. sarcoptic mange, keratoconjunctivitis or brucellosis) are related to local ibex density and abundance. The observed correlation between the demographic growth of ibex populations and disease outbreaks suggests that the risk of epizooties may be increasing or might already be high in several populations of Capra ibex.