Assessment of the Representation of West African Storm Lifecycles in Convection-Permitting Simulations

被引:50
作者
Crook, Julia [1 ]
Klein, Cornelia [2 ]
Folwell, Sonja [2 ]
Taylor, Christopher M. [2 ]
Parker, Douglas J. [1 ]
Stratton, Rachel [3 ]
Stein, Thorwald [4 ]
机构
[1] Univ Leeds, Sch Earth & Environm, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England
[2] Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England
[3] Met Off, Exeter, Devon, England
[4] Univ Reading, Reading, Berks, England
来源
EARTH AND SPACE SCIENCE | 2019年 / 6卷 / 05期
基金
英国自然环境研究理事会;
关键词
convection-permitting modeling; precipitation; West Africa; storm tracking; NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION; MODEL DESCRIPTION; PARAMETERIZED CONVECTION; TROPICAL CONVECTION; DIURNAL CYCLE; PRECIPITATION; SYSTEMS; SCALE; SCHEME; SAHEL;
D O I
10.1029/2018EA000491
中图分类号
P1 [天文学];
学科分类号
0704 ;
摘要
Convection-permitting models perform better at representing the diurnal cycle and the intermittency of convective rainfall over land than parameterized-convection models. However, most of the previous model assessments have been from an Eulerian point of view, while key impacts of the rainfall depend on a storm-relative perspective of the system lifecycle. Here a storm-tracking algorithm is used to generate storm-centered Lagrangian lifecycle statistics of precipitation over West Africa from regional climate model simulations and observations. Two versions of the Met Office Unified Model with and without convection parameterization at 4-, 12-, and 25-km resolution were analyzed. In both of the parameterized-convection simulations, storm lifetimes are too short compared to observations, and storms have no preferred propagation direction; the diurnal cycle of initiations and dissipations and the spatial distribution of storms are also inaccurate. The storms in the convection-permitting simulations have more realistic diurnal cycles and lifetimes but are not as large as the largest observed storms. The convection-permitting model storms propagate in the correct direction, although not as fast as observed storms, and they have a much improved spatial distribution. The rainfall rate of convection-permitting storms is likely too intense compared to observations. The improved representation of the statistics of organized convective lifecycles shows that convection-permitting models provide better simulation of a number of aspects of high-impact weather, which are critical to climate impacts in this important geographic region, providing the high rainfall rates can be taken into account.
引用
收藏
页码:818 / 835
页数:18
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