A very short-range forecast system of regional debris flow based on Doppler weather radar

In the following paper. a regional prediction model for impending debris flows is described, according to the reason of the debris flow disaster formation. Besides several methods of data acquisition, the method of precipitation forecast in 3h, based on the detecting technology of Doppler weather radar is discussed in detail. Namely, an extended prediction model of total precipitation and the hourly maximum precipitation in 3h has been developed and furthermore, a mesoscale and microscale regional prediction system for impending debris flow has been constructed. Liangshan in Sichuan Province has been selected as a case study area, due to occurrences of serious debris flow disasters. A standard element model for the prediction of debris flows for Liangshan has been Put forward by a statistical method, basing on the conditions for the debris-flow formation, its well as the information on debris flow disasters. Moreover, an application system for the regional prediction of impending debris flow for Liangshan with GIS technology has been established. The debris flow disaster event of the May 31, 2005, has been successfully simulated with this new system in order to test it.