Provenance tests as indicators of growth response to climate change in 10 north temperate tree species

Thirteen series of multilocation provenance test plantations, representing 10 tree species common to eastern North America, were analyzed to determine the effect of variation in average annual minimum temperature on height growth of trees from known seed source locations. Regressions were developed to predict provenance height, based on the temperature differentials between seed source locations and provenance locations. Regression equations for 12 of the 13 provenance test series were significant (p < 0.01) and accounted for an average of 29% of the height variation among provenances. For 8 of the 10 species examined, an increase in average annual minimum temperature is projected to result in a decline in tree height growth, relative to an adapted source.