Overeducation of Young Workers in Spain: How Much Does the First Job Matter? Social Indicators Research

This article contributes to recent overeducation literature on the impact of an initial education mismatch on workers' future careers. Specifically, using the 2009 ad-hoc module of the Spanish Labour Force Survey, we quantify the differences in the probability of overeducation depending on the quality of individuals' first match. To do this, we apply an extension of the recursive bivariate probit model, which allows potential endogeneity problems to be taken into account, as well as a dissimilar impact of the initial match for workers with different educational attainment. The results indicate that overeducation is a trap, since young workers who were mismatched in their first job are 40.2 percentage points more likely to be overeducated in a later one than those who were not. When decomposing this difference in two parts, one related to the pure effect of the initial mismatch and another one related to workers' characteristics, we conclude that the pure effect is more important, and it depends on educational attainment.