Optimal detection of a change point in a poisson process for different observation schemes

被引:27
作者
Herberts, T
Jensen, U [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Hohenheim, Inst Appl Math & Stat, D-70593 Stuttgart, Germany
[2] Univ Tubingen, D-72074 Tubingen, Germany
关键词
change point; detection problem; optimal stopping; point process; semimartingale representation;
D O I
10.1111/j.1467-9469.2004.02-102.x
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
Change point problems are considered where at some unobservable time the intensity of a point process (T-n), n is an element of N, has a jump. For a given reward functional we detect the change point optimally for different information schemes. These schemes differ in the available information. We consider three information levels, namely sequential observation of (T-n), ex post decision after observing the point process up to a fixed time t* and a combination of both observation schemes. In all of these cases the detection problem is viewed as an optimal stopping problem which can be solved by deriving a semimartingale representation of the gain process and applying tools from filtering theory.
引用
收藏
页码:347 / 366
页数:20
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