Evolution and Decision Model of Major Infectious Disease Based on Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets

Emergency evolving as disaster chain has been regarded as core problem to solve in emergency management. Major infectious disease attributes are extracted by multi-case study. These attributes are collected as structural description framework referring to event type, key attributes, secondary attributes, environment attributes and hazardous attributes. Thus properties of related attributes among the events chain are analyzed, and then the Generalized Stochastic Petri Nets (GSPN) is employed to model the evolution process of major infectious disease and decision-making. Meanwhile the corresponding Markov chain is established based on isomorphic relation derived from GSPN. Finally, the equilibrium state and fluctuation pattern of the system are studied for evaluating and improving the system with Markov chain and corresponding mathematics method. The key finding are the evolution law of major infectious disease could be drew out by GSPN from the attributes perspective, and also from this perspective the decision for responding to the major infectious disease could be provided.