Presidential Election Forecasts

被引：0

作者：

Walker, David A. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Georgetown Univ, Capital Markets Res Ctr, Washington, DC 20057 USA

来源：

FORUM-A JOURNAL OF APPLIED RESEARCH IN CONTEMPORARY POLITICS | 2008年 / 6卷 / 04期

关键词：

election forecasts; 2008 presidential election;

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

D0 [政治学、政治理论];

学科分类号：

0302 ; 030201 ;

摘要：

This paper contrasts election forecasting models that include macro-economic and financial market variables with forecasts by Fair and the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM), as well estimates made by widely recognized pollsters. The Financial Market Model proposed here incorporates the impact of election year stock market changes, including information about the recent financial crisis. However, the Financial Market Model grossly overestimates the challenger's vote share. The IEM forecast of 53.0 percent, the Fair forecast of 51.9 percent, and the Macro-Economic Market model forecast of 51.5 percent were close to the actual vote share of 53.2 percent for the Democratic nominee, but the Financial Market forecast of 59.4 in this paper would have made the president-elect extremely happy.

引用

页数：8