Quantitative Assessment of Human Risk from Landfill Failure in Shenzhen, China

Seventy-three people dead and 4 people missing in a landfill failure occurred at Shenzhen, China at 11:40 a.m. 20 December 2015. The Shenzhen landfill failure was caused by the accumulation of waste in a former quarry in the Shenzhen. To evaluate the loss of life caused by the Shenzhen landfill failure, a quantitative risk assessment was conducted. The risk could be defined as the product of the probability of occurrence, the consequence and the element at risk in a quantitative measurement. A slope model is used to analyze the slope stability and reliability. The runout behavior, temporal-spatial probability, and the element at risk are analyzed. The vulnerability factor is referred to established table based on different degree of damaged buildings. The potential annual loss of life from a single hazard is then obtained by combining the probability of occurrence and the consequence as a societal risk. The societal risk is visualized and evaluated by the presentation of F-N curves resulting in an unacceptable region which proved that the real case of landfill failure was under an unacceptable risk. This study provides a quantitative way for the risk assessment of Shenzhen landfill failure and develops a risk assessment model for landfill.