Modelling the deceleration of COVID-19 spreading

被引：3

作者：

Barzon, Giacomo ^{[1
]}

Kabbur Hanumanthappa Manjunatha, Karan ^{[1
]}

Rugel, Wolfgang ^{[1
]}

Orlandini, Enzo ^{[1
,2
]}

Baiesi, Marco ^{[1
,2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Padua, Dipartimento Fis & Astron Galileo Galilei, Via Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padua, Italy

[2] Ist Nazl Fis Nucl, Sez Padova, Via Marzolo 8, I-35131 Padua, Italy

来源：

JOURNAL OF PHYSICS A-MATHEMATICAL AND THEORETICAL | 2021年 / 54卷 / 04期

关键词：

epidemic modelling; differential equations; COVID-19; EPIDEMIC;

D O I：

10.1088/1751-8121/abd59e

中图分类号：

O4 [物理学];

学科分类号：

0702 ;

摘要：

By characterizing the time evolution of COVID-19 in term of its 'velocity' (log of the new cases per day) and its rate of variation, or 'acceleration', we show that in many countries there has been a deceleration even before lockdowns were issued. This feature, possibly due to the increase of social awareness, can be rationalized by a susceptible-hidden-infected-recovered model introduced by Barnes, in which a hidden (isolated from the virus) compartment H is gradually populated by susceptible people, thus reducing the effectiveness of the virus spreading. By introducing a partial hiding mechanism, for instance due to the impossibility for a fraction of the population to enter the hidden state, we obtain a model that, although still sufficiently simple, faithfully reproduces the different deceleration trends observed in several major countries.

引用

页数：12

共 23 条

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