Predicting the relative impacts of maternal and neonatal respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) vaccine target product profiles: A consensus modelling approach

被引:29
作者
Pan-Ngum, Wirichada [1 ,2 ]
Kinyanjui, Timothy [3 ,4 ]
Kiti, Moses [4 ]
Taylor, Sylvia [5 ]
Toussaint, Jean-Francois [5 ]
Saralamba, Sompob [1 ]
Van Effelterre, Thierry [5 ,9 ]
Nokes, D. James [4 ,6 ,7 ]
White, Lisa J. [1 ,8 ]
机构
[1] Mahidol Univ, Fac Trop Med, Mahidol Oxford Trop Med Res Unit MORU, Math & Econ Modelling MAEMOD Res Grp, Bangkok, Thailand
[2] Mahidol Univ, Fac Trop Med, Dept Trop Hyg, Bangkok, Thailand
[3] Univ Manchester, Sch Math, Alan Turing Bldg,Oxford Rd, Manchester, Lancs, England
[4] KEMRI Ctr Geog Med Res Coast, KEMRI Wellcome Trust Res Programme, Kilifi, Kenya
[5] GSK Vaccines, Wavre, Belgium
[6] Univ Warwick, Sch Life Sci, Coventry, W Midlands, England
[7] Univ Warwick, WIDER, Coventry, W Midlands, England
[8] Univ Oxford, Nuffield Dept Med, Oxford, England
[9] Janssen Res & Dev, Beerse, Belgium
基金
英国惠康基金;
关键词
Transmission model; RSV; Kenya; Vaccine TPP; Hospitalization; Contact pattern; IMMUNITY;
D O I
10.1016/j.vaccine.2016.10.073
中图分类号
R392 [医学免疫学]; Q939.91 [免疫学];
学科分类号
100102 ;
摘要
Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the major viral cause of infant and childhood lower respiratory tract disease worldwide. Defining the optimal target product profile (TPP) is complicated due to a wide range of possible vaccine properties, modalities and an incomplete understanding of the mechanism of natural immunity. We report consensus population level impact projections based on two mathematical models applied to a low income setting. Method: Two structurally distinct age-specific deterministic compartmental models reflecting uncertainty associated with the natural history of infection and the mechanism by which immunity is acquired and lost were constructed. A wide range of vaccine TPPs were explored including dosing regime and uptake, and effects in the vaccinated individual on infectiousness, susceptibility, duration of protection, disease severity and interaction with maternal antibodies and natural induced immunity. These were combined with a range of vaccine implementation strategies, targeting the highest priority age group and calibrated using hospitalization data from Kilifi County Hospital, Kenya. Findings: Both models were able to reproduce the data. The impact predicted by the two models was qualitatively similar across the range of TPPs, although one model consistently predicted higher impact than the other. For a proposed realistic range of scenarios of TPP combinations, the models predicted up to 70% reduction in hospitalizations in children under five years old. Vaccine designs which reduced the duration and infectiousness of infection were predicted to have higher impacts. The models were sensitive to the coverage and rate of loss of vaccine protection but not to the interaction between vaccine and maternal/naturally acquired immunity. Conclusion: The results suggest that vaccine properties leading to reduced virus circulation by lessening the duration and infectiousness of infection upon challenge are of major importance in population RSV disease control. These features should be a focus for vaccine development. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
引用
收藏
页码:403 / 409
页数:7
相关论文
共 23 条
[1]  
ANDERSON R M, 1991
[2]   Oral GS-5806 Activity in a Respiratory Syncytial Virus Challenge Study [J].
DeVincenzo, John P. ;
Whitley, Richard J. ;
Mackman, Richard L. ;
Scaglioni-Weinlich, Cecilia ;
Harrison, Lisa ;
Farrell, Eric ;
McBride, Stephen ;
Lambkin-Williams, Robert ;
Jordan, Robert ;
Xin, Yan ;
Ramanathan, Srini ;
O'Riordan, Thomas ;
Lewis, Sandra A. ;
Li, Xiaoming ;
Toback, Seth L. ;
Lin, Shao-Lee ;
Chien, Jason W. .
NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2014, 371 (08) :711-722
[3]   Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara Encoding Influenza Virus Hemagglutinin Induces Heterosubtypic Immunity in Macaques [J].
Florek, Kelsey R. ;
Weinfurter, Jason T. ;
Jegaskanda, Sinthujan ;
Brewoo, Joseph N. ;
Powell, Tim D. ;
Young, Ginger R. ;
Das, Subash C. ;
Hatta, Masato ;
Broman, Karl W. ;
Hungnes, Olav ;
Dudman, Susanne G. ;
Kawaoka, Yoshihiro ;
Kent, Stephen J. ;
Stinchcomb, Dan T. ;
Osorio, Jorge E. ;
Friedrich, Thomas C. .
JOURNAL OF VIROLOGY, 2014, 88 (22) :13418-13428
[4]   DNA vaccination protects against an influenza challenge in a double-blind randomised placebo-controlled phase 1b clinical trial [J].
Jones, Suzanne ;
Evans, Kirsten ;
McElwaine-Johnn, Hilary ;
Sharpe, Michaela ;
Oxford, John ;
Lambkin-Williams, Rob ;
Mant, Tim ;
Nolan, Andrew ;
Zambon, Maria ;
Ellis, Joanna ;
Beadle, John ;
Loudon, Peter T. .
VACCINE, 2009, 27 (18) :2506-2512
[5]   Efficacy of repeated annual immunization with inactivated influenza virus vaccines over a five year period [J].
Keitel, WA ;
Cate, TR ;
Couch, RB ;
Huggins, LL ;
Hess, KR .
VACCINE, 1997, 15 (10) :1114-1122
[6]   Vaccine Induced Herd Immunity for Control of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Disease in a Low-Income Country Setting [J].
Kinyanjui, Timothy M. ;
House, Thomas A. ;
Kiti, Moses C. ;
Cane, Patricia A. ;
Nokes, David J. ;
Medley, Graham F. .
PLOS ONE, 2015, 10 (09)
[7]   Quantifying Age-Related Rates of Social Contact Using Diaries in a Rural Coastal Population of Kenya [J].
Kiti, Moses Chapa ;
Kinyanjui, Timothy Muiruri ;
Koech, Dorothy Chelagat ;
Munywoki, Patrick Kiio ;
Medley, Graham Francis ;
Nokes, David James .
PLOS ONE, 2014, 9 (08)
[8]   Global burden of acute lower respiratory infections due to respiratory syncytial virus in young children: a systematic review and meta-analysis [J].
Nair, Harish ;
Nokes, D. James ;
Gessner, Bradford D. ;
Dherani, Mukesh ;
Madhi, Shabir A. ;
Singleton, Rosalyn J. ;
O'Brien, Katherine L. ;
Roca, Anna ;
Wright, Peter F. ;
Bruce, Nigel ;
Chandran, Aruna ;
Theodoratou, Evropi ;
Sutanto, Agustinus ;
Sedyaningsih, Endang R. ;
Ngama, Mwanajuma ;
Munywoki, Patrick K. ;
Kartasasmita, Cissy ;
Simoes, Eric A. F. ;
Rudan, Igor ;
Weber, Martin W. ;
Campbell, Harry .
LANCET, 2010, 375 (9725) :1545-1555
[9]   Incidence and Severity of Respiratory Syncytial Virus Pneumonia in Rural Kenyan Children Identified through Hospital Surveillance [J].
Nokes, D. James ;
Ngama, Mwanajuma ;
Bett, Anne ;
Abwao, John ;
Munywoki, Patrick ;
English, Mike ;
Scott, J. Anthony G. ;
Cane, Patricia A. ;
Medley, Graham F. .
CLINICAL INFECTIOUS DISEASES, 2009, 49 (09) :1341-1349
[10]  
Null D, 1998, PEDIATRICS, V102, P531, DOI 10.1542/peds.102.3.531