Strong motion scenario of 25th November 2000 earthquake for Absheron peninsula (Azerbaijan)

Urban earthquake scenario requires compilation and interpretation of topographical, geological, geotechnical, macroseismic, and instrumental data, along with identification of proper ground motion prediction and site response analysis. Within the intensive city planning and infrastructure improvement of Baku city (the capital of Azerbaijan), and due to land and water instabilities, intensified landslides, and increasing seismic activity, Absheron peninsula has turned into one of the strategic earthquake case studies, representing exposure to earthquake hazard in the region. The last strongest 25th November 2000 earthquake revealed that the peninsula was severely vulnerable to seismic events, since there was a lack of public awareness of seismic disaster and its consequences, and there were not any preventive measures which might have been derived from the scenario-based simulations and prediction of strong motion distribution over the area. In the present work, integrated analysis of seismicity, engineering geology, geomorphology, topography, and site response is used to model strong motion dynamics in terms of peak ground acceleration distribution and intensity level for Absheron peninsula along with Baku city. The strong motion scenario of the 25th November 2000 earthquake shows that the larger area of the peninsula coincides with the VIII-IX intensity level, including Baku city. The scenario distribution can be valuable in all phases of the disaster management process.