Risk-based assessment of the post-earthquake functional disruption and restoration of distributed infrastructure systems

A risk-based framework for assessing the post-earthquake functional loss and restoration of distributed infrastructure systems is presented. Using an appropriate seismic source model, a stochastic earthquake catalogue is generated for the target region. For each event in the catalogue, the joint distribution of shaking and component-level damage maps are produced. Process-based discrete event simulation is coupled with an appropriate method for linking physical damage to functional impacts to model the restoration for each damage map. By considering all possible events that are impactful to the target region and their associated rates of occurrence, the full probability distribution of the functional recovery trajectory of the system is obtained. Dispersion disaggregation is used to isolate the individual contribution of each random variable to the uncertainty bounds in the restoration trajectory. A case study involving the city of Napa's water system is used to demonstrate how the framework can support resilience-based risk-informed decision-making for distributed infrastructure.