Climate Change, Mitigation of Consequences and Development of Sustainable Management of Agriculture in Bulgaria

The agriculture will be seriously affected in terms of less precipitations and higher temperature. The hydro-meteorological conditions of Bulgaria have been worsening. The long-term meteorological data analysis of different regions (1971-2000) shows a clear tendency of warming and drying. The rough estimation has been taken from the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change 2007. The main goal of the research is to help the farming in adaptation with the climate change and to mitigate its impact for long term period 2020-2050-2070. it needs cost-benefit analysis of public investment in order to consider using an ecosystem-based approach for climate change adaptation and mitigation. The development of sustainable agriculture is not possible without applying an agro-climatic zoning. The objectives of the research are, as follows: - Analysis in order to recover the growth, development and the productivity of the agricultural crops by simulation models of production conditions and in correspondence with the expected climate change; - Bringing up-to-date the existing agro-climatic zoning of Bulgaria for the main cereals, fruits, vegetables, vineyards and forage herbs; to examine the interrelations among biological, economic and agro-climatic indicators in order to determine regions for irrigation and more suitable crops for it in low-favoured agricultural regions mitigating the climate change for 2020-2050-2070; - Finding hydrothermal indices and its applicability using an ecosystem-based approach; initiate the process of restructuring of agricultural production depending on the real and potential resources in order to mitigate the climate change. The final results of the research are recommendations for public administration to organize agro-climatic zoning and to achieve better investment of national and EU funds in agriculture development.