Forecasting and control policy assessment for the Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic in Sierra Leone using small-world networked model simulations

被引:12
作者
Siettos, Constantinos I. [1 ]
Anastassopoulou, Cleo [2 ]
Russo, Lucia [3 ]
Grigoras, Christos [1 ,4 ]
Mylonakis, Eleftherios [4 ]
机构
[1] Natl Tech Univ Athens, Sch Appl Math & Phys Sci, Athens, Greece
[2] Univ Patras, Dept Biol, Div Genet Cell & Dev Biol, Patras, Greece
[3] CNR, Naples, Italy
[4] Brown Univ, Rhode Isl Hosp, Warren Alpert Med Sch, Div Infect Dis, Providence, RI 02903 USA
来源
BMJ OPEN | 2016年 / 6卷 / 01期
关键词
COARSE STABILITY; WEST-AFRICA; BIFURCATION; DYNAMICS;
D O I
10.1136/bmjopen-2015-008649
中图分类号
R5 [内科学];
学科分类号
1002 ; 100201 ;
摘要
Objectives: As the Ebola virus disease is still sustained in Sierra Leone, we analysed the epidemic for a recent period (21 December 2014 to 17 April 2015) using a small-world networked model and forecasted its evolution. Policy-control scenarios for the containment of the epidemic were also examined. Methods: We developed an agent-based model with 6 million individuals (the population of Sierra Leone) interacting through a small-world social network. The model incorporates the main epidemiological factors, including the effect of burial practices to virus transmission. The effective reproductive number (Re) was evaluated directly from the agent-based simulations. Estimates of the epidemiological variables were computed on the basis of the official cases as reported by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Results: From 21 December 2014 to 18 February 2015 the epidemic was in recession compared with previous months, as indicated by the estimated Re of similar to 0.77 (95% CI 0.72 to 0.82). From 18 February to 17 April 2015, the Re rose above criticality (similar to 1.98, 95% CI 1.33 to 2.22), flashing a note of caution for the situation. By projecting in time, we predicted that the epidemic would continue through July 2015. Our predictions were close to the cases reported by CDC by the end of June, verifying the criticality of the situation. In light of these developments, while revising our manuscript, we expanded our analysis to include the most recent data (until 15 August 2015). By mid-August, Re had fallen below criticality and the epidemic was expected to fade out by early December 2015. Conclusions: Our results call for the continuation of drastic control measures, which in the absence of an effective vaccine or therapy at present can only translate to isolation of the infected section of the population, to contain the epidemic.
引用
收藏
页数:7
相关论文
共 22 条
  • [1] Ebola Virus Disease among Children in West Africa
    Agua-Agum, Junerlyn
    Ariyarajah, Archchun
    Blake, Isobel M.
    Cori, Anne
    Donnelly, Christl A.
    Dorigatti, Ilaria
    Dye, Christopher
    Eckmanns, Tim
    Ferguson, Neil M.
    Fowler, Robert A.
    Fraser, Christophe
    Garske, Tini
    Hinsley, Wes
    Jombart, Thibaut
    Mills, Harriet L.
    Murthy, Srinivas
    Nedjati-Gilani, Gemma
    Nouvellet, Pierre
    Pelletier, Louise
    Riley, Steven
    Schumacher, Dirk
    Shah, Anita
    Van Kerkhove, Maria D.
    [J]. NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2015, 372 (13) : 1274 - 1277
  • [2] [Anonymous], 2015, Wkly Epidemiol Rec, V90, P89
  • [3] [Anonymous], 2015, BBC NEWS
  • [4] [Anonymous], 2016, Ebola Situation Report
  • [5] Ebola in Freetown Area, Sierra Leone - A Case Study of 581 Patients
    Ansumana, Rashid
    Jacobsen, Kathryn H.
    Sahr, Foday
    [J]. NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2015, 372 (06) : 587 - 588
  • [6] Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa - The First 9 Months of the Epidemic and Forward Projections
    Aylward, Bruce
    Barboza, Philippe
    Bawo, Luke
    Bertherat, Eric
    Bilivogui, Pepe
    Blake, Isobel
    Brennan, Rick
    Briand, Sylvie
    Chakauya, Jethro Magwati
    Chitala, Kennedy
    Conteh, Roland M.
    Cori, Anne
    Croisier, Alice
    Dangou, Jean-Marie
    Diallo, Boubacar
    Donnelly, Christl A.
    Dye, Christopher
    Eckmanns, Tim
    Ferguson, Neil M.
    Formenty, Pierre
    Fuhrer, Caroline
    Fukuda, Keiji
    Garske, Tini
    Gasasira, Alex
    Gbanyan, Stephen
    Graaff, Peter
    Heleze, Emmanuel
    Jambai, Amara
    Jombart, Thibaut
    Kasolo, Francis
    Kadiobo, Albert Mbule
    Keita, Sakoba
    Kertesz, Daniel
    Kone, Moussa
    Lane, Chris
    Markoff, Jered
    Massaquoi, Moses
    Mills, Harriet
    Mulba, John Mike
    Musa, Emmanuel
    Myhre, Joel
    Nasidi, Abdusalam
    Nilles, Eric
    Nouvellet, Pierre
    Nshimirimana, Deo
    Nuttall, Isabelle
    Nyenswah, Tolbert
    Olu, Olushayo
    Pendergast, Scott
    Perea, William
    [J]. NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2014, 371 (16) : 1481 - 1495
  • [7] Emergence of Zaire Ebola Virus Disease in Guinea
    Baize, Sylvain
    Pannetier, Delphine
    Oestereich, Lisa
    Rieger, Toni
    Koivogui, Lamine
    Magassouba, N'Faly
    Soropogui, Barre
    Sow, Mamadou Saliou
    Keita, Sakoba
    De Clerck, Hilde
    Tiffany, Amanda
    Dominguez, Gemma
    Loua, Mathieu
    Traore, Alexis
    Kolie, Moussa
    Malano, Emmanuel Roland
    Heleze, Emmanuel
    Bocquin, Anne
    Mely, Stephane
    Raoul, Herve
    Caro, Valerie
    Cadar, Daniel
    Gabriel, Martin
    Pahlmann, Meike
    Tappe, Dennis
    Schmidt-Chanasit, Jonas
    Impouma, Benido
    Diallo, Abdoul Karim
    Formenty, Pierre
    Van Herp, Michel
    Guenther, Stephan
    [J]. NEW ENGLAND JOURNAL OF MEDICINE, 2014, 371 (15) : 1418 - 1425
  • [8] Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 2014, 2014 EB OUTBR W AFR
  • [9] An interior trust region approach for nonlinear minimization subject to bounds
    Coleman, TF
    Li, YY
    [J]. SIAM JOURNAL ON OPTIMIZATION, 1996, 6 (02) : 418 - 445
  • [10] Gear C. W., 2003, Communications in Mathematical Sciences, V1, P715, DOI 10.4310/CMS.2003.v1.n4.a5