Distinct types of restructuring scenarios for rural settlements in a heterogeneous rural landscape: Application of a clustering approach and ecological niche modeling

The development of rural settlements is contingent on whether the rural functioning and land use suitability are considered in anticipated trajectories. However, rural multifunctionality has often been neglected in existing studies of rural spatial restructuring, especially within a heterogeneous rural landscape. This study proposed an integrated approach that links village functionality and land suitability at different scales to design targeted strategies for rural settlement restructuring. An empirical investigation was conducted in Shengzhou City, a rural region with diverse geomorphic features. The transformation process and spatial pattern of rural housing lands in the study area varied markedly across time and space. Our results showed that multiple physical, socio-economic and institutional determinants jointly contribute to these diversified trends. Further, clustering methods and ecological niche models were adopted to illustrate current and potential niches of rural settlements at multiple levels. By considering the significant driving forces of rural development, combined with management orientation factors, we revealed five types of villages with different functions. Then, distinct rural spatial restructuring scenarios with policy guidelines were concluded. These findings also illustrate the potential utility of the proposed methodologies for rural spatial restructuring. We proposed that the application of ecological niche theory to rural spatial restructuring can enhance our knowledge of the changing social-ecological system and serve as a nexus between interdisciplinary perspectives.