Modelling the International Tourist Arrivals in India

Using the gravity model, this article investigates the determinants of tourist inflow to India. Several origin-destination (O-D) linked factors, such as Gross Domestic Product, Price index, Exchange Rate, Population, Distance, and Exports and Imports between India and its tourist origins, are explored. Using the panel dataset of 19 tourist originating countries to India from 2000 to 2018 the results of the study suggest that all the variables of the gravity model have statistically significant effects on tourist arrivals to India. In addition, we find tourism inflow to be highly price elastic. Additionally, we found a significant positive relationship between political stability and import ratio variable with tourism arrival. However, we found a significant negative relationship of export ratio with tourism arrival. The study findings provide initial ques to the policy makers and tourism industry players for developing strategies, policies, and regulations in line with increasing the inbound tourist flow to India.