Predictive Capabilities of Avalanche Models for Solar Flares

We assess the predictive capabilities of various classes of avalanche models for solar flares. We demonstrate that avalanche models cannot generally be used to predict specific events because of their high sensitivity to the embedded stochastic process. We show that deterministically driven models can nevertheless alleviate this caveat and be efficiently used for predictions of large events. Our results suggest a new approach for predictions of large (typically X-class) solar flares based on simple and computationally inexpensive avalanche models.